The bank is out of control and the market is out of control.

"I have never seen 30% of traders on the overnight, life is not perfect." Yesterday, many interbank market traders were emotional.

On June 20th, 2013, this crazy day was enough to be included in the history of the Chinese interbank market. On the same day, the bank's overnight repo rate reached an unprecedented 30%, and the 7-day repo rate reached a maximum of 28%. For a long time in recent years, these two interest rates have often been less than 3%.

In the midsummer, when the country is covered in high temperatures, the interbank market is also "high fever". Since mid-May, the interest rate of funds in the interbank market in China has gradually increased. In June, the funds were highly nervous, and the interest rate of funds continued to hit new highs in the past few days. There are even rumors that large banks have defaulted on funds, but the news has been rumored.

In the opinion of analysts, the mid-year assessment of commercial banks, the slowdown in foreign exchange inflows, and the consolidation of the bond market are all related to the tightness of funds. The reason why June 20 was so crazy was due to the successive failures of the currency. Loose expectations.

The State Council executive meeting held on Wednesday announced: "Stand up the sound monetary policy, play well, and reasonably maintain the total amount of money." This phrase has completely smashed the market's hope for the central bank to "release water." The central bank also further demonstrated its attitude of not relaxing with the actual actions of insisting on the issuance of central bank bills.

In the view of many economists, the policy thinking of the new central government is to focus on reform and reform the structure, which means that the willingness to introduce short-term stimulus policies is weakened. Despite the same emphasis on economic growth, as the government's tolerance for the economic downturn has increased, its ability to produce short-term side effects of tightening liquidity has also increased.

"Money shortage" continues

Yesterday's opening, the interbank bond market overnight repo rate reported 10%, 7-day interest rate reported 12%, 1 month interest rate reported 9%, all historical highs; intraday market tragic, overnight repo once traded at 30%, 7 The daily repo rate reached a maximum of 28%, and the one-month interest rate jumped to 18%, both of which set a new record for the interbank; as of the close, the overnight and 7-day repo rates went up by more than 300 basis points to 11.65% and 11.449%.

In the interbank lending market, it is also "sorrowful and arrogant." The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) data released at 11:30 am showed that Shibor surged 578.40 basis points overnight, rising to a historical high of 13.4440%; 7-day interest rate rose 292.90 basis points to 11.0040%; 1 month interest rate rose 178.40 basis points to 9.3990%.

A senior big trader told reporters: "There are borrowing money everywhere, the price of funds has broken through the imagination, and has been a trader for so many years. This is so unprecedented, the market is almost out of control."

It is worth noting that the medium and long-term Shibor is also significantly higher, indicating that the agency is pessimistic about future funding expectations. Among them, the three-month interest rate rose by 39.50 basis points to 5.8033%, and the six-month interest rate rose by 13.93 basis points to 4.2425%.

Affected by funds, yesterday's inter-bank bond prices generally "diving", and "big money shortage" has also hit the primary market. On June 20 alone, four issuers issued an announcement announcing the postponement or change of the bond issuance plan.

“The short-end interest rate is so high that there is no way to trade. Where can I find a bond with a yield of 10%?” A private equity manager of a bond in Beijing told reporters, “Either reluctantly buy or take the initiative to leverage.”

The expected monetary easing of the market has not yet arrived, but the cost of capital has soared. As a result, the domestic stock market fell sharply again yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,084.02 points, down 2.77%.

Both the capital market and the stock market showed little panic yesterday, and both have links and interactions. At the same time that the release of liquidity in the country is expected to fall, the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s latest speech outlines the timetable for exiting QE (quantitative easing), and HSBC’s China manufacturing PMI is lower than expected, giving financial markets Caused pressure.

“QE3’s exit is expected to heat up, leading to the withdrawal of capital from emerging market economies including China, which has tightened the funds of these countries.” Everbright Securities (10.94, -0.72, -6.17%) analyst Xu Gao in his research Said in the report.

In fact, the pressure of capital outflows and the depreciation of the local currency is not only happening in China, but in many emerging market economies. Since May, the currencies such as Thai baht, Indian rupee and Korean won have changed since last year and began to depreciate significantly against the US dollar.

The central bank is "abnormal"

So far, this "big money shortage" has lasted for a full month. In the meantime, not only the tightness of the funds exceeded expectations, but the “abnormal” move of the central bank made the market people fall below the glasses.

In late May, due to the decrease in foreign exchange inflows, the seasonal fiscal tax payment and the end of the month, the interest rate of inter-bank funds gradually increased. In June, as the pressure on commercial banks' cash reserves increased before the Dragon Boat Festival, the interest rate of funds continued to soar, and Shibor approached 10% overnight.

Unexpectedly, however, the central bank did not give a helping hand, and the central bank issuance and repurchase operations are correct. The reverse repo and short-term liquidity adjustment tools (SLO) remain at the legendary stage, breaking the market. The inertia of the central bank’s “water release” before the holiday.

After the holiday, the tight capital situation has eased, but there has been no substantial improvement, and the cost of capital has soared again since this Tuesday. As always, the more nervous the market, the more it expects the central bank to take the shot. As a gesture, the central bank insisted on the issuance of central bank bills this week. Although the two circulations were only 2 billion yuan, the reverse repurchase continued to be cited.

The latest analysis of Shenyin Wanguo believes that the continued issuance of central bank bills indicates that the central bank continues to insist on not relaxing signals, lowering interest rates or SLOs, and so on.

However, some scholars have expressed certain concerns about the current "money shortage" phenomenon.

Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JPMorgan China, told the newspaper that the short-term presence of the central bank’s tough attitude has created a liquidity contraction and led to a higher risk of interest rates on the real sector, thus adding to the already weak economic activity. He suggested that the central bank should introduce reverse repurchase operations as soon as possible to appease the panic in the interbank market.

"The biggest problem between banks at present is not the lack of funds, but the organization is too pessimistic. In order to reverse the pessimistic expectations, it is necessary to introduce measures to reduce the amount of money, so that the funds are not out of control, which is in line with the prudent monetary policy requirements." Liu Zhi told reporters.

Li Zhiqiang, chief economist of Minsheng Bank's financial market department, told reporters that China does not have a market-oriented platform that will be expected to be reflected. The market does not know the intention of the central bank, and the central bank is not clear about the market's expectations, which will lead to a hard landing of expectations. “The central bank may just want to charge the liquidity, but did not expect the market to be caught off guard.”

Iron blood "correction"

Why is the central bank reluctant to “release water” as the interbank market ushers in a historic tension? Some analysts speculate that this may reflect the tough attitude of the new government to deal with financial risks.

“We believe that the control of financial risks is the main reason for the recent tightening of liquidity.” Gao Yu Securities China macro economist Song Yu said in the research report that this move will lead to downward pressure on economic growth in the short term, but the New Deal The positive impact is that these reforms should reduce systemic risk and potentially increase the potential growth of the Chinese economy.

In the view of Liu Weihui, chief economist of Huatai Securities, the intention of the central bank is to suppress risk appetite, prompting commercial banks to manage their balance sheets in a more cautious manner, especially to control the risk of liquidity mismatches in some institutions. He believes that since the beginning of this year, the credit expansion of commercial banks has been very strong, and the scale of social financing has increased by 3 trillion yuan year-on-year, accumulating more and more risks.

A number of commercial bank people told this reporter that in recent years, the off-balance-sheet business of commercial banks and the “shadow banking” have expanded rapidly, and the risks they contain have caused concern at the decision-making level. The recent move by the central bank is precisely to regulate this.

“It is obvious that compared with what was done before, the central bank has changed significantly.” Li Zhiqiang said, “In the past, as long as the money market was relatively tight, the central bank would put in and iron the market fluctuations; this time the central bank intends to let the capital cost Going up, I hope that funds can flow in a more efficient direction to the real economy."

All this speculation was confirmed on June 19. On the same day, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the State Council executive meeting, which called for "guided credit funds to support the real economy, adhere to a sound monetary policy, play well, and maintain a reasonable amount of money." As a result, the recent high monetary policy loosening expectations have been completely ruined.

As Guan Qingyou, vice president of the Minsheng Securities Research Institute, said, from the latest state of the State Council, the tone of the current monetary policy is tight. Sticking to stability, revitalizing stocks, and using good increments means resisting pressure and continuing to adjust the structure. Release the water.

"The market has adapted to the rhythm of the central bank with the lessons of blood. The central bank's ironclad 'correction' is basically successful." Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, commented yesterday that by the end of the second quarter, the bank's excess reserve ratio will return to normal, to 7 The funds are expected to loosen in the middle of the month.

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