Abstract A number of investment banks have previously warned that the Chinese economy is facing a hard landing risk, and once warned that China's economic growth rate may break six. However, after China released a number of positive economic data including PMI, major investment banks have turned. China's main macroeconomic data in August
Many investment banks have previously warned that the Chinese economy is facing a hard landing risk, and once warned that China's economic growth rate may break six. However, after China released a number of positive economic data including PMI, major investment banks have turned. China's major macroeconomic data continued to improve in August, which led to a number of investment banks such as CICC and JPMorgan Chase to raise China's GDP expectations. Yesterday, CICC released a report saying that China's short-term economic growth has improved, and this year's GDP forecast is raised from 7.4% to 7.5%, and JP Morgan Chase is also raised from 7.4% to 7.6%.
CICC believes that the PMI of China's Purchasing Managers Index continued to rise in August, and the expansion of the new order index is the most important contribution, indicating that the expansion of aggregate demand has increased, and both domestic and external demand have improved. To this end, CICC will raise its GDP growth forecast this year from 7.4% to 7.5%. It is expected that the third-quarter GDP growth rate will rebound from 7.4% to 7.6%. JPMorgan’s latest report also pointed out that the August China manufacturing report showed that China’s economic situation is improving. To this end, China’s 2013 GDP growth forecast is raised from 7.4% to 7.6%. Coincidentally, many investment banks including Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have been optimistic about China's economic prospects in the past two weeks.
Many investment banks have previously warned that the Chinese economy is facing a hard landing risk, and once warned that China's economic growth rate may break six. However, after China released a number of positive economic data including PMI, major investment banks have turned. Deutsche Bank was the first to move, which raised its growth forecast for the second half of the Chinese economy from 7.6% to 7.7%, higher than the consensus of 7.5% on the current market. Ma Jun, an economist in the bank, said in the report that the Chinese economy has recently regained its growth momentum and this situation may continue. Ma Jun also pointed out that as the economic situation of the US, Europe and Japan is estimated to be significantly better than this year next year, China's economic growth will be faster this year due to export growth. Subsequently, Credit Suisse joined the ranks of China's economy, raising China's GDP growth forecast this year from 7.6% estimated in June to 7.6%, but still less than the earliest 8%.
Although the major investment banks have raised their expectations, these investment banks are still cautious. JPMorgan Chase said that China still faces "many challenges," including rising debt and its so-called "moderate and temporary" recovery. CICC also pointed out that the squeeze of real estate and local governments on other private entities' economic sectors still exists, private fixed asset investment is still slowing down, and the PMI expansion momentum of SMEs is weak, so the rebound of economic growth is limited. In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP may fall back to 7.3% under the influence of high base, and the forecast of maintaining GDP growth of 7.3% next year will remain unchanged.
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