Due to the significant economies of scale and long industrial chain, the automobile industry has always been a pillar industry in the competition of various major economic provinces in China.
According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national automobile production in the first half of this year was 14.301 million units, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, but the total retail sales was 1,867.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. Among them, the total growth rate of auto retail sales in July was -7%, the lowest growth rate since 2002.
The National Bureau of Statistics estimates that due to the slowdown in car sales in May and June, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has been lowered. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country was 9.4%, the lowest since 2004.
Because of the "rainy rain" in the production and sales of automobiles in the country, there have been cases where production has fallen sharply and there has been a sorrow.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, automobile production in Hubei, Jiangsu, Hebei, Beijing, Anhui, and Chongqing all experienced negative growth in the first half of the year. These regions have an annual output of more than one million vehicles, and the slowdown in automobile production and sales has affected the local economy more or less.
Zhang Jiansen, director of the Center for Finance and Modern Industry Research at Shenzhen Research Institute of Comprehensive Development, believes that the rapid development of the automobile industry in the past has once experienced explosive growth and solved the demand problem that has been suppressed for a long time. At present, it is not realistic for the overall automobile to maintain rapid growth. The general public's demand for automobiles is not so large, but new energy vehicles, smart cars, etc. may have a lot of room for growth.
Car production and sales slow down
According to figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to June, China's automobile production and sales completed 14.085 million units and 14.066 million units respectively. The production and sales volume increased by 4.2% and 5.6% respectively over the same period of the previous year. The sales growth rate was 1.8 times higher than the same period of the previous year. Percentage points, overall performance is better than expected at the beginning of the year.
However, in terms of sales, the current downward pressure on automobile sales is high. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the growth rate of auto retail sales in March-June this year continued to slow down, with growth rates of 3.5%, 3.5%, -1%, and -7%, respectively. The lowest value in a single month since.
In the first half of Jiangsu, the automobile consumption of units above designated size only increased by 2.8%. Liu Xingyuan, deputy director of Jiangsu Statistics Bureau, pointed out in the recent data conference of the first half of the province that the growth rate of retail sales of automotive products above the designated size in the first half of the year was relatively low, mainly The reason is related to the reduction of national automobile tariffs on July 1 and the wait for consumers to hold the currency. At the same time, it is also related to the cancellation of the small-displacement car purchase tax preferential policy. As the policy influence gradually subsides, the car retail sales volume should gradually return to normal.
However, the current slowdown in automobile production and sales in the country is a new turning point for cars, or the demand is temporarily suppressed, and there is controversy.
Jia Xinguang, executive director of the China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that the current consumption demand of the automobile itself is very large. Jia Xinguang, executive director of the China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that the current consumption demand of the automobile itself is very large, but the local automobile purchase restriction policy has curbed demand, and the first-tier cities have restricted purchases. The more the number of used cars is restricted, the slower the production and sales of automobiles.
However, "there is still a large demand in the automobile industry. It will not be outdated for the time being. It is also changing. The automobile industry will be different from the present one hundred years ago. Now the country has made it clear that traditional automobile projects will no longer be approved, and encourage new development. Energy cars," Jia Xinguang said.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's auto industry has developed rapidly in recent years. In 2008, the output of automobiles was 9.615 million. In 2009, it increased to 13.827 million, and by 2012 there were 20.597 million. In 2017, the national automobile production was 29.942 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. In other words, in 10 years, Chinaâ€™s automobile production has increased more than twice.
However, China currently has only about 150 vehicles per 1,000 people, which is still far behind the 800 levels in the United States. This seems to indicate that there is still huge room for development in the future of Chinese autos.
Wang Hongchang, secretary general of the China Automobile Distribution Association, believes that the production and sales of automobiles are determined by the market. At present, automobile consumption is slowing down, and there are various constraints. For example, Beijing has implemented automobile purchase restrictions due to urban traffic congestion. There is no better way. To solve.
In addition, he also believes that China's reduction of automobile tariffs has an impact on automobile consumption expectations.
Large industrial provinces face new changes
Due to the slowdown in automobile consumption, it has affected many automobile production provinces.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the output of many major automobile provinces grew slowly. In the provinces and autonomous regions with an annual output of more than 1 million vehicles, only Shanghai's automobile production growth rate in the first half of this year was 12.85%, which is double-digit growth. Other growth rates are very low.
For example, in the first half of this year, Liaoning, Jilin, Guangdong, and Guangxi grew at a rate of 0-8%. Automobile production in Hubei, Jiangsu, Hebei, Beijing, Anhui, and Chongqing was negative. In the first half of this year, Jiangsu and Hebei's automobile production decreased by 5.39% and 6.44% respectively. In the first half of the year, Beijing and Anhui's automobile production decreased by more than 10%, and Chongqing decreased by more than 26%.
Affected by this, the regional pattern of national automobile production is undergoing dramatic changes.
For example, in 2015, Chongqing's automobile production was 2,601,100 units, ranking first in the country, and the second and third places were Shanghai and Guangdong respectively, with output of 2,249,700 units and 2,394,100 units respectively.
By 2016, Guangdong became the largest automobile production province with a production capacity of 2,800,600 units, Chongqing ranked second with a production of 2,633,400 units, and Shanghai was the third with a production of 2,607,700 units. In 2017 and the first half of this year, Guangdong, Shanghai and Jilin were the top three automobile production bases in the country. In the first half of this year, the output of Guangdong was 1.536 million, Shanghai was 1.5196 million, and Jilin was the third with 1.537 million.
But the biggest problem is that with the current slowdown in national car sales, the national automobile production pattern may be shuffled. The reason is that in the first half of this year, Zhejiang Auto went against the trend, and its automobile production reached 584,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 64.28%. This is related to the start of production of Shanghai Volkswagen's automobile branch in Ningbo from December last year. In the future, the plant will produce 600,000 SUVs per year.
At present, Shanghai has signed a contract with Tesla to prepare for an annual production of 500,000 new energy vehicles in Shanghai. Whether Shanghai will become the country's first automobile production base is worthy of attention.
And because of the slowdown in car sales, industrial growth in many places is also slowing down. For example, in the first half of this year, the growth rates of industrial enterprises above designated size in Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangxi were 1.8%, 6.9%, 6.2%, and 3%, respectively, which were 0.7, 0.7, 1.6, and 3.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first quarter. This has led to a slowdown in the secondary industry in these regions, which has put downward pressure on the economy. In the first half of this year, Jilin's industrial growth rate of above designated size was 2%, which was behind the country.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the current production and sales of new energy vehicles in the country are rising rapidly. For example, from January to June this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles nationwide reached 413,000 and 412,000 respectively, an increase of 94.9% over the same period of the previous year. 111.5%. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles completed 314,000 and 313,000 respectively, an increase of 79.0% and 96.0% respectively over the same period of the previous year.
It is yet to be seen whether the sales of new energy vehicles will accelerate, whether it means that traditional vehicles are being phased out, and the automobile structure is undergoing major adjustments. At present, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles is only a fraction of the total of 14.085 million units and 14.066 million units of national automobile production and sales in the first half of the year.
In many places, the production and sales of automobiles have fallen sharply. The traditional automobile industry is heavily entrenched. How to choose promising industries in the future is worthy of further study.
Ye Zhenyu, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Science of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the local auto industry in some provinces is in a downturn, and the technology update has not kept up. There is no sunset industry in the world. For example, German cars are constantly updating their technology and still occupy an important position in the world. . The slowdown in automobile production and sales in many parts of China is due to the fact that products and technologies do not meet market demand and are eliminated by the market.
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