Measurable parity on top of aluminum faces repair

[yesterday disk]

Day: Friday, the opening price of Al1605 contract was 11,770 yuan per ton, the highest price was 1,1920 yuan per ton, the lowest price was 11,770 yuan per ton, and the closing price was 11,890 yuan per ton, up 0.98%. The turnover was 106,000 lots, and the position was 167,000 lots.

Night plate: Friday night is closed due to holidays.

[Overnight disk]

The opening price of LME3 aluminum on Monday was 1,536.50 US dollars / ton, the highest price of 1548.00 US dollars / ton, the lowest price of 1528.00 US dollars / ton, the closing price of 1538.00 US dollars / ton, up 0.00%.

Basics

1. Spot price increases on Friday.

Yangtze River spot 11,830-11,870 yuan / ton, the average price of 11,850 yuan / ton, ↑ 150 yuan / ton; Shanghai spot: 11,810-11,850 yuan / ton, the average price of 11,830 yuan / ton, ↑ 140 yuan / ton; Guangdong Nancun (South China ): RMB 11,850-11,950/ton, with an average price of RMB 11,900/ton, and RMB 140/ton.

2. On Friday, the spot price of 11855 was reduced in recent months, and the main spot price of 11890 was reduced.

The Yangtze River had a discount of RMB 5/ton for 1604 in recent months (15 yuan/ton for the previous trading day), and a premium of RMB 40 yuan/ton for the main RMB 1605 (a discount of 75 yuan/ton on the previous trading day).

3. The stock of SHFE aluminum futures decreased by 1,823 tons on Friday.

SHFE designated delivery warehouse aluminum futures inventory at 224,000 tons, a reduction of 1823 tons, of which Guangdong stock decreased by 1892 tons to 14,000 tons, Zhejiang warehouse decreased 350 tons to 22,000 tons, Shanghai stocks decreased by 224 tons to 88,000 tons, Jiangsu stock Increased 643 tons to 99,000 tons.

4. LME aluminum futures stocks fell by 6,775 tons on Monday.

LME aluminum stocks were at 2.776 million tons on Tuesday, a decrease of 6,775 tons compared with the previous day. The number of cancelled warehouse orders was 995,000 tons, and the cancellation warehouse receipt ratio rose to 35.84%.

5. Overnight news

[China's official manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to 50.2 in March]

China's official manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to 50.2 in March. It has returned above the line for the first time since August last year. It is expected to be 49.4, and the previous value was 49.0. According to the Bureau of Statistics, after the Spring Festival, the enterprises started to concentrate, and at the same time, the demand for import and export markets picked up and returned to expansion.

At the same time, the official non-manufacturing PMI of March was released at 53.8, a previous value of 52.7, and non-manufacturing industries accelerated their expansion.

The new export order index for March was 50.2%, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, and was the first time since October 2014 that it had risen above the critical point.

The March import index was 50.1%, up 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, the highest since December 2013.

[Shanghai new home transaction area dropped by 60%]

Bloomberg quoted Uwe Real Estate Research Center as saying that in the week of March 28-April 3, the turnover of commercial residential buildings in Shanghai fell by 60.44% from the previous week; the average transaction price fell by 3.42%. After Shanghai and Shenzhen have resorted to the regulation and control policies of the property market, the spillover effect of funds has become apparent. It has flowed to the periphery of first-tier cities and hot-line second-tier cities. Analysts said that the property market policy Wei Weizhao Zhao, the second and third line property market is expected to significantly improve.

[U.S. Non-agricultural Addition of 215,000 in the United States in March]

Non-farm employment in the United States rose by 215,000 in March, better than expected; unemployment rose to 5%, the first increase since May last year; labor participation rate rose to 63%, the highest level since March 14; manufacturing employment The decrease of 29,000 was the largest decline since December 2009.

[Eurozone economic data]

In the euro zone, the final manufacturing PMI for March was 51.6, which is expected to be 51.4, and the initial value was 51.4.

Germany's final manufacturing PMI for March was 50.7, with expectations of 50.4 and initial value of 50.4.

France's manufacturing PMI final value in March was 49.6, expected 49.6, and initial value 49.6.

The unemployment rate in the euro zone in February was 10.3%, which fell further from 10.4% in January, the lowest since 2011.

[LME Base Metal]

LME copper closed down 1.5% at $4760.50/ton.

Nickel in the LME closed up 0.6% at $8,370/tonne.

LME aluminum closed flat at $1536/t.

Zinc in the LME fell 1.0% to end at $1,854/ton.

LME lead fell 1.7% to $1718/ton.

LME tin fell 0.5%, to 16,625 US dollars / ton.

【technical analysis】

Shanghai Aluminum closed the day at the Xiaoyang line and hit a record high of 11920. The red column of MACD increases, DIFF remains above the DEA line, and the average system and the daily KDJ long position.

[operation suggestion]

Aluminium, which rose sharply on Friday, oscillated on Monday, further narrowing its spread with Shanghai Aluminum. Shanghai Aluminum maintained its strong upward trend on Friday and broke new highs again. We believe that the current peak season of aluminum consumption, the pattern of periodic weak supply and demand is still strong, seasonal demand for aluminum prices to provide support, aluminum market sentiment is strong, capital inflows to promote the rise. It is recommended to focus on the 12000-12200 range. However, as a whole, the current property policy tightening, if the resulting real estate sales in the future is less than expected, the aluminum price upside may be affected, and the space above is expected to be measurable.