Abstract The latest report by GTM Research, a research institute, found that due to continued price rebounds and continued expansion of the end market, factories that had previously stopped production resumed production, and polysilicon production capacity is growing at an encouraging rate. The report is expected to be 2015 and 2016
The latest report from research firm GTMResearch found that, in view of the continued price rebound and continued expansion of the end market, the factories that had been discontinued have resumed production, and polysilicon production capacity is growing at an encouraging rate. The report predicts that in 2015 and 2016, the annual global production capacity of polysilicon will reach 70,000 MT and 61,000 MT respectively, which will make the global polysilicon production capacity reach 437000 MT, enough to support the production of 85 GW of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules. The report predicts that in 2016, global PV demand will be at least 60GW. If the demand is not large enough, the price may collapse again.
However, the report expects prices to stabilize between $18 and $24 per kg by the end of 2015. From 2011 to 2013, the overcapacity of the global polysilicon market was severe, and the price collapse caused many companies to suffer heavy losses. Until the second half of 2013, the global market “freed†from the oversupply.
Another report by GTM Research found that new technologies for polysilicon production in fluidized bed reactors (FRB) will account for the vast majority of polysilicon production. The company expects FBR technology capacity to almost double from 26,000 MT in 2014 to 46,000 MT in 2015. The technology capacity is expected to grow further in the next two years.
“Our FRB technology is optimistic,†said ShyamMehta, an upstream analyst at GTM Research. “We expect the cash cost of this technology to be lower than the Siemens process.â€
However, although the report predicts that FBR technology will account for only 15% of global polysilicon capacity in 2018, Mehta emphasizes the high degree of proprietary nature of the technology. "In 2018, the expanding FBR factory was originally announced," Mehta said.
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