On March 11, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake hit Northeast Japan and Kanto and caused a tsunami. This catastrophe will not only hit Japan's economic recovery in the short term, but will also have a certain impact on the world economy. Will the Great Japanese Earthquake Impact the Chinese Economy? Has little influence on China's petrochemical industry? The author believes that Japan, as the third largest economy in the world, is also one of China's major trading partners. The impact of the earthquake on the Chinese economy, especially the petrochemical industry, is being forgiven.
First, the earthquake in Japan led to the destruction of the oil refining facilities in the country. COSMO Oil Company was forced to suspend operations at a refinery in Chiba Prefecture. The gas tanks of Sendai City in Miyagi Prefecture caught fire. They are located in Ibaraki Prefecture. The oil refineries in Kanagawa Prefecture and other places also stopped operations due to earthquakes, and the daily processing capacity of the affected refineries exceeded 1.2 million barrels. Japan is the third largest oil importer in the world. A major earthquake will reduce the demand for crude oil in Japan in the short term, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Affected by this, the New York market oil prices all the way down after the opening on March 11, the lowest intraday intraday price hovering around 99 dollars, a drop of nearly 4%. Global oil prices fluctuate due to the earthquake in Japan, and the possibility of lower oil prices is more likely. This will have a certain impact on China's oil imports and the oil industry.
Second, the Chiba region, where Japan’s petrochemical industry is concentrated, was hit by a tsunami. It is reported that Mitsui Chemicals, Mitsubishi Chemicals, Maruzen Oil Company, Shin-Etsu Chemical and other world-renowned chemical companies have had factories shut down due to disasters or power outages. In addition, the large earthquake has caused serious damage to the power plant. In particular, the nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture has exploded. The power supply is difficult to meet the demand. In some parts of Japan, the blackout occurs. At the same time, the earthquake caused damage to roads and ports and other facilities, directly affecting transport logistics. China's foreign dependence on organic chemical raw materials and synthetic materials is 20% and 30%, respectively, and a substantial portion of them rely on imports from Japan to make up for the shortfall. The Great Earthquake in Japan will certainly affect China's imports of chemical raw materials.
Thirdly, the Japanese auto industry suffered the most serious loss in this earthquake. A total of 22 factories of Toyota, Honda and Nissan, three Japanese automakers, have closed down. Such a large-scale suspension of the Japanese auto industry will inevitably affect the tire and rubber markets. Tokyo, Japan, is the world's most important ** market, and it has a high degree of correlation with the city of Shanghai, China. Natural rubber has recently entered the decline channel, and the Japanese earthquake is likely to accelerate the fluctuation of the natural rubber market.
Fourth, on the day of the earthquake, the Nikkei stock index fell rapidly and fell 1.72% at the close; on March 14, it even fell below the 10,000 point mark. Most of the global stock markets suffered setbacks. The Asia-Pacific market was even lower across the board. At the same time, the majority of the capital markets fell. Some economists believe that this earthquake may reduce Japan's national GDP by 1%. Japan’s post-earthquake reconstruction requires a lot of funds, and Japan’s capital flows back, causing a structural change in the financial landscape, and its impact will infiltrate the global economy. Influence China's economy and China's petrochemical industry from the macro level.
According to an announcement issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the aftershocks of the earthquake will last for one month, and its impact will be difficult to end in the short term. However, as soon as the disaster has just begun, its specific impact remains to be further observed. In the long run, post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction will drive demand growth, residential and road reconstruction will magnify the demand for energy and chemical building materials, and tens of thousands of cars destroyed and burnt in the tsunami will need to be supplemented in the future. Rubber demand has an impact. Therefore, we must pay due attention to the impact of the Great Japan Earthquake on China's petrochemical industry, make a thorough assessment, and prepare corresponding countermeasures according to the impact of different phases.
First, the earthquake in Japan led to the destruction of the oil refining facilities in the country. COSMO Oil Company was forced to suspend operations at a refinery in Chiba Prefecture. The gas tanks of Sendai City in Miyagi Prefecture caught fire. They are located in Ibaraki Prefecture. The oil refineries in Kanagawa Prefecture and other places also stopped operations due to earthquakes, and the daily processing capacity of the affected refineries exceeded 1.2 million barrels. Japan is the third largest oil importer in the world. A major earthquake will reduce the demand for crude oil in Japan in the short term, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Affected by this, the New York market oil prices all the way down after the opening on March 11, the lowest intraday intraday price hovering around 99 dollars, a drop of nearly 4%. Global oil prices fluctuate due to the earthquake in Japan, and the possibility of lower oil prices is more likely. This will have a certain impact on China's oil imports and the oil industry.
Second, the Chiba region, where Japan’s petrochemical industry is concentrated, was hit by a tsunami. It is reported that Mitsui Chemicals, Mitsubishi Chemicals, Maruzen Oil Company, Shin-Etsu Chemical and other world-renowned chemical companies have had factories shut down due to disasters or power outages. In addition, the large earthquake has caused serious damage to the power plant. In particular, the nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture has exploded. The power supply is difficult to meet the demand. In some parts of Japan, the blackout occurs. At the same time, the earthquake caused damage to roads and ports and other facilities, directly affecting transport logistics. China's foreign dependence on organic chemical raw materials and synthetic materials is 20% and 30%, respectively, and a substantial portion of them rely on imports from Japan to make up for the shortfall. The Great Earthquake in Japan will certainly affect China's imports of chemical raw materials.
Thirdly, the Japanese auto industry suffered the most serious loss in this earthquake. A total of 22 factories of Toyota, Honda and Nissan, three Japanese automakers, have closed down. Such a large-scale suspension of the Japanese auto industry will inevitably affect the tire and rubber markets. Tokyo, Japan, is the world's most important ** market, and it has a high degree of correlation with the city of Shanghai, China. Natural rubber has recently entered the decline channel, and the Japanese earthquake is likely to accelerate the fluctuation of the natural rubber market.
Fourth, on the day of the earthquake, the Nikkei stock index fell rapidly and fell 1.72% at the close; on March 14, it even fell below the 10,000 point mark. Most of the global stock markets suffered setbacks. The Asia-Pacific market was even lower across the board. At the same time, the majority of the capital markets fell. Some economists believe that this earthquake may reduce Japan's national GDP by 1%. Japan’s post-earthquake reconstruction requires a lot of funds, and Japan’s capital flows back, causing a structural change in the financial landscape, and its impact will infiltrate the global economy. Influence China's economy and China's petrochemical industry from the macro level.
According to an announcement issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the aftershocks of the earthquake will last for one month, and its impact will be difficult to end in the short term. However, as soon as the disaster has just begun, its specific impact remains to be further observed. In the long run, post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction will drive demand growth, residential and road reconstruction will magnify the demand for energy and chemical building materials, and tens of thousands of cars destroyed and burnt in the tsunami will need to be supplemented in the future. Rubber demand has an impact. Therefore, we must pay due attention to the impact of the Great Japan Earthquake on China's petrochemical industry, make a thorough assessment, and prepare corresponding countermeasures according to the impact of different phases.