Under the influence of the US initial jobless claims data, the price of light crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to US$84.09 per barrel, the highest price since May, and then fell back. Industry analysts believe that considering the combination of multiple factors, the rise in international oil prices will have little impact on domestic refineries.
On October 7, the initial jobless claims released by the United States were better than expected. After the release of the data, the U.S. dollar exchange rate was lower. It has been observed that the rebound in the dollar exchange rate triggered the profit-taking of commodity ** after it continued to rise. Under the influence of US stocks and commodities, international oil prices have fallen sharply and have fallen back from the highest point in the past five months.
Moreover, the inventory report released by the US Department of Energy on October 6 showed that the US commercial crude oil inventories continued to increase, which kept oil prices from rising and lost their support. On October 7, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro rebounded after falling continuously, which also inhibited the further strengthening of the oil price.
Industry analysts generally believe that if other financial markets do not have a strong trend, oil prices will hardly rise.
However, analysts believe that a more significant factor is that the appreciation of *** can hedge the impact of rising international oil prices on domestic refinery costs.
The data shows that since September, the volatility of the middle price of the *** exchange rate has increased significantly, and the intention to increase exchange rate flexibility has basically been reflected. The exchange rate of *** against the US dollar has recently appreciated significantly. On October 8, the central parity rate of *** against the U.S. dollar was reported at 6.6830, which was 181 basis points higher than the previous trading day, and set a new high since the exchange reform.
Comprehensive multiple factors, industry analysts believe that the rise in the international oil price has little effect on domestic refineries.
Previously, if the average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai, and Sinta continues to be maintained at more than US$80/barrel, the average price of crude oil on the 22nd will increase by more than 4% over the benchmark day (June 1). Have the conditions to increase the price of refined oil. At the current oil price level, due to the increase in crude oil prices, the refined oil product prices (crack oil price dilemmas) have not been adjusted, and thus profitability of the refining business may decline.
According to the Development and Reform Commission's "Oil Prices Management Measures (Trial)", when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly. The latest oil price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission was on June 1st. The prices of gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton, respectively, a decrease of approximately 2.8%-2.94%.
From July 22 to July 29 this year, international oil prices continued to decline, and they had met the conditions for refined oil price adjustments. However, the NDRC stated that crude oil price fluctuations did not meet the price adjustment boundary conditions and did not initiate price adjustment measures.
Therefore, the latest research report released by Credit Suisse, an investment bank, predicts that due to the recent rise in international oil prices, China may increase domestic refined oil prices this month (crack the oil price dilemma). And said that if the refined oil price increases by 3%, domestic refineries can digest cost pressures, this month's profit margin is expected to be flat.