Since 2007, China's photovoltaic cell production has ranked first in the world and has become the world's largest exporter of photovoltaic products. However, with the recent European and American, and even India began to carry out "double anti-" for China's photovoltaic products, the "tightening curse" is the tighter and tighter, China's photovoltaic products exports cast a shadow. Reflected in domestic enterprises, Jiangxi Saiwei has been in trouble for a long time, and the days of A-share photovoltaic listed companies will be better? To this end, Xiang Cai Securities Research Institute new energy researcher Xu Wei, our reporter Chen Qichen and the newspaper hosted Li Xi, a discussion on related topics.
Photovoltaic industry trade war started
Moderator: Recently, for China's PV companies, the "bad news" from overseas has been continuous. Xu Zheng, director of the Institute of Solar Energy, School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, said that nearly 60% of China's PV products are sold to the EU market. Once the EU is "double-reverse", China's PV manufacturers will suffer a devastating blow. Will the statement of "destroying strikes" be a bit exaggerated?
Xu Wei: Actually, it is not an exaggeration, because from the perspective of the entire PV market, the installed capacity in Europe is about 60% of the world, and China's installed capacity accounts for about 10%. Therefore, due to the 60% market, the EU's proposed double-reverse will make the survival difficulties of Chinese PV manufacturers more serious. Now the whole photovoltaic industry is summed up in one sentence, that is, overcapacity and a sharp drop in profits. In the case of market growth of only 20% and 30%, the capacity growth rate has reached 100%. If the United States and India both propose a double-reverse, it will be even worse for the Chinese PV industry.
Chen Qichen: The data I have seen is that China may have 70% of its products exported to the EU, but whether it is 60% or 70%, the blow to Chinese companies is very big. If the EU confirms China's PV dumping, it means that 70% of the market is gone, which is indeed a "destructive blow."
Moderator: Just a few days before the news that the EU will carry out "double opposition" to me, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation on polysilicon products from the United States and South Korea. What is the situation like this?
Xu Wei: OCI, a leading polysilicon company in Korea, has been dumping at a low price in China, and the price quoted is even less than $20 per kilogram. According to the data of the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the current mainstream price of international polysilicon spot is 20 to 25 US dollars per kilogram. From the largest polysilicon manufacturer in China, GCL-Poly learned that the current production cost of the world's first-line polysilicon manufacturers is about 25 to 30 US dollars per kilogram, plus management and operating costs, sales at a price below 27 US dollars / kg is definitely a loss-making operation.
However, since the polysilicon technology of the United States and South Korea has been leading in the world, their gross profit margin and net profit margin are very high when the price of polysilicon is about several hundred yuan or even 60 dollars. Now it seems to be a loss, but the cash cost after depreciation costs, as long as the price is not less than 18, 20 dollars, I believe foreign companies are willing to do. Nowadays, the cost of domestic enterprises is also falling after the technology comes up. Therefore, everyone is competing at low prices. It is only the polysilicon enterprises in the United States and South Korea that export polysilicon prices to Japan and Europe are generally higher than the polysilicon prices exported to China. From this perspective, US and South Korean companies have imposed certain dumping on China.
Chen Qichen: At present, China's PV market is relatively mature, and overseas polysilicon enterprises are vying to occupy the Chinese market. Many years ago, in the context of overseas monopoly, the price of polysilicon was as high as more than 400 US dollars. Therefore, overseas companies now want to occupy the Chinese market through low-price strategies. When the domestic polysilicon enterprises are all asleep, they will increase their prices. At that time, no company will compete with him. It is.
Xu Wei: From the perspective of the United States, it is the beginning of a trade war. China, including Yingli and Suntech, formed a photovoltaic alliance, and they have been saying that they will respond to importers such as the United States. From China's point of view, the profitability of downstream battery and component products is expected to temporarily decrease. Because 60% and 70% of polysilicon is imported, increasing import tariffs will make the cost of batteries and components much higher, and the entire Chinese PV industry will be greatly affected.
Chen Qichen: This is a trade war. As long as the trade war is unfavorable to both sides, killing one thousand and losing eight hundred. At present, as long as the European debt crisis is not resolved, the trade war will continue to fight.
Photovoltaic companies still need winter
Moderator: Specific to the photovoltaic industry, the recent debt problem of Jiangxi Saiwei has been raging. What we are currently learning is that as of the end of the first quarter of this year, more than a dozen financial institutions and two local state-owned enterprises have provided loans to Saiwei of up to 12.885 billion yuan.
Chen Qichen: I was interviewed by Saiwei and I was very surprised. In such a large factory, the main entrance and the back door are actually blocked by trucks, so that the cars inside are not allowed to come out, and the cars outside are not allowed to enter. Some Saiwei employees said that the trucks were sent by suppliers because Saiwei owed a large amount of money from suppliers, ranging from several million to hundreds of millions. This shows that Saiwei’s tight capital chain and high debt are a very clear fact. Savi’s four-year report showed that the total debt has reached $6 billion, which is very large and the debt ratio has reached 87%.
Xu Wei: For PV companies, the general health debt ratio is 50%, 60%, and Saiwei 87% is quite high. Moreover, he has to continue to bear the weight of interest, and the average annual interest rate of the company may be 6%.
Moderator: Jiangxi Saiwei is a very large PV company in China. If he has such problems, the days of other companies must be difficult, including related A-share listed companies.
Xu Wei: Of course, the days of A-share PV companies listed companies will not be better. Since the third quarter of last year, the overall price of the photovoltaic industry has dropped by 60% to the present, and it has fallen by 50% at the end of last year. That is to say, the price has stabilized and declined in the past six months. At the same time, the PV market is at the same time. The most terminal market for polysilicon is in Europe and North America. The subsidy reduction in these countries has created certain pressure on Chinese related companies. From the perspective of A-share companies, the main downstream such as Chaori Sun (5.01, -0.05, -0.99%), Hairun Photovoltaic, and Sunflower (6.140, 0.05, 0.82%) are concentrated in Europe, while European subsidies are downgraded. Installed capacity, Germany's growth rate this year is zero, Italy's growth rate is minus 50%, in the case of Europe, the traditional photovoltaic market has not improved, the income of these companies will fall sharply. At the same time, affected by the entire industry chain, their gross profit margins are not ideal. In addition, the inventory of some companies is equivalent to half-year income, facing the risk of inventory impairment. At the same time, because of the relative weakness of the euro, their inventory profit and loss will affect 3-4 points this year. From this perspective, the performance of photovoltaic listed companies will not be too good.
Moderator: At present, the entire PV industry chain is in a downturn, how should PV companies spend this winter?
Xu Wei: I think the decline in the PV industry will continue for some time, probably lasting until the end of 2013, and there will be more than a year. From the perspective of the entire market, the traditional PV market has begun to move down, and the demand in emerging markets has not reached the scale of the traditional market. At the same time, from the perspective of power generation, the cost of generating electricity for photovoltaics is now 0.6 yuan per unit, 0.7 yuan, far higher than the cost of thermal power generation. However, I think that by the end of 2013, the cost of photovoltaics will drop considerably. From the price and cost, we can see the recovery of the photovoltaic industry, that is, the profit of the entire photovoltaic market begins to recover. From a market perspective, if the cost reaches the level of thermal power in 2013, the entire market will have more funds to invest because it has the role of replacing thermal power. If the policy is liberalized, the market will be truly affordable, and the people will return to the people. The photovoltaic industry will experience a burst of explosive growth.
Chen Qichen: Indeed, the key is the time when the Internet is cheap. Previously, the forecast was the fastest until 2015, but at that time, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic industry was still very high. Everyone felt that the cost reduction curve was 8% and 10% per year. However, it is estimated that no one would have expected a 50% drop in prices at the end of 2011, so the time for cheap Internet access may be advanced.
Moderator: We make a worst plan. Assume that the EU will “double-reverse†China's PV products after one month, which is equivalent to the closure of the European and American PV market. For related companies, perhaps they can only expect the outbreak of the domestic market. What kind of policies will the country have?
Chen Qichen: China introduced a policy on on-grid tariffs last year, which is a very favorable policy for the photovoltaic industry. Including the experts I interviewed also believe that the biggest problem now is still in the grid. The State Grid (microblogging) believes that both photovoltaics and wind power are “junk powerâ€, which will affect the grid and impose additional costs. There is no enthusiasm for the optoelectronics to be on the list. Therefore, the state must give certain policy encouragement to the national grid.
Xu Wei: The worst plan is likely to become a reality, and the country needs a process from the introduction of policies to the effectiveness of policies. Therefore, my prospects for A-share PV listed companies are relatively pessimistic. I think for the whole industry. It is not the bottom yet.
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