In Japan, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck at 13:46 pm on March 11th, 2011. Fukushima Prefecture, Iwate Prefecture, Miyagi Prefecture, Ibaraki Prefecture, and Chiba Prefecture suffered the most severe damage. The impact of discontinued production from a number of chemical companies will affect China. Chemical Industry.
Short-term shortage of raw materials in Japan due to shutdown of refineries
According to media reports and our understanding, some refineries in Japan have been hit by earthquakes, and the production of basic raw materials such as refined oil, olefins, and aromatic hydrocarbons has been hit. Insufficient production of olefins and aromatic hydrocarbons, especially ethylene and propylene, will result in greater influences.
Among them, COSMO Cosmo Oil Company Chiba Refinery has a daily crude oil processing capacity of 220,000 barrels, which is the company's largest refinery. The main products include ethylene, propylene, butylene, butadiene and so on. The explosion caused by the liquefied gas caused by the earthquake caused the company to stop production.
In addition, the refineries in Kanagawa and Ibaraki were also shut down due to the earthquake. Maruzen Oil and Mitsui Chemicals also stopped work immediately after the explosion. Japan's Jikun Rishi Nippon Energy Co., Ltd.'s natural gas tank in Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture caught fire, and its aromatics installations in Sendai, Kashima and Fando were also closed.
The decrease in supply will increase the gap between the supply and demand of propylene oxide PO, which will benefit Binhua Chemical Co., Ltd.
Japan's propylene oxide PO production capacity reached 570,000 tons, among which Asahi Glass, NOC, and Sumitomo Chemical had a total installed area of ​​490,000 tons. They were located close to the earthquake area and were severely damaged by the earthquake, accounting for 86% of the national production capacity. We believe that the earthquake may have a devastating effect on these installations, and the degree of damage needs further understanding. At the same time, the shutdown of the refinery resulted in insufficient supply of upstream propylene raw materials, and the limited certainty of propylene oxide production led to the Japanese region. Insufficient production of propylene oxide.
Japan is an important importer of propylene oxide in China. In 2010, China produced 1.08 million tons of propylene oxide, imported 350,000 tons, and the import dependency reached 24%, of which 28,000 tons were imported from Japan and accounted for 8% of imports. In the past two years, the domestic new capacity of propylene oxide was only 100,000 tons of Shandong Yongda 50,000 tons each in 11 and 12 years; the downstream demand was strong, and the new capacity of polyether polyols reached 660,000 tons in 11 years, making the propylene oxide boom It will continue until 2012. Restricted production in Japan will reduce domestic imports, further aggravate domestic supply tensions, increase the profitability of propylene oxide, and further aggravate cost pressures in the downstream polyether industry. Binhua shares will benefit significantly, and Hongbaoli will face cost pressures.
PX Import Impact Increases Cost Stress of Polyester Industry Chain
Japan has a PX total capacity of about 3.8 million, ranking third in the world. PTA has a capacity of 1.63 million tons, and the Chiba region near the epicenter has a PX capacity of 710,000. Japan is also China's largest importer of PX and the fourth largest importer of PTA, and it is also an important determinant of PX prices in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2010, China's PX production was 5.8 million tons, and imports were 3.53 million tons. The import dependency was as high as 39%, of which 1 million tons were imported from Japan, accounting for 28% of the import volume; PTA production was 13 million tons, and imports were 6.64 million tons, importing The dependency level reached 34%, of which 180,000 tons were imported from Japan, accounting for 3% of the import volume.
Demand for domestic downstream polyester polyester is strong. In the next two years, a large number of new installations will be put into production in China. Among them, China's new polyester production capacity will be 4.7 million tons in the next 11 years, and 2 million tons will be put into production in the first half of the year. In 2011, the domestic PTA's new capacity was 4.05 million tons, of which 600,000 tons was put into operation in the first half of the year and 3.45 million tons was put into production in the second half of the year In the next two years, domestic and overseas PX production capacity will be less. Only domestic Xianglu Petrochemical's 800,000 tons, and Hainan Refining's 600,000 tons production capacity will be put into use. The supply will be tight. Affected imports will further increase the cost pressure on the polyester industry chain, and the pressure on PTA and polyester products will increase.
Short-term shortage of raw materials in Japan due to shutdown of refineries
According to media reports and our understanding, some refineries in Japan have been hit by earthquakes, and the production of basic raw materials such as refined oil, olefins, and aromatic hydrocarbons has been hit. Insufficient production of olefins and aromatic hydrocarbons, especially ethylene and propylene, will result in greater influences.
Among them, COSMO Cosmo Oil Company Chiba Refinery has a daily crude oil processing capacity of 220,000 barrels, which is the company's largest refinery. The main products include ethylene, propylene, butylene, butadiene and so on. The explosion caused by the liquefied gas caused by the earthquake caused the company to stop production.
In addition, the refineries in Kanagawa and Ibaraki were also shut down due to the earthquake. Maruzen Oil and Mitsui Chemicals also stopped work immediately after the explosion. Japan's Jikun Rishi Nippon Energy Co., Ltd.'s natural gas tank in Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture caught fire, and its aromatics installations in Sendai, Kashima and Fando were also closed.
The decrease in supply will increase the gap between the supply and demand of propylene oxide PO, which will benefit Binhua Chemical Co., Ltd.
Japan's propylene oxide PO production capacity reached 570,000 tons, among which Asahi Glass, NOC, and Sumitomo Chemical had a total installed area of ​​490,000 tons. They were located close to the earthquake area and were severely damaged by the earthquake, accounting for 86% of the national production capacity. We believe that the earthquake may have a devastating effect on these installations, and the degree of damage needs further understanding. At the same time, the shutdown of the refinery resulted in insufficient supply of upstream propylene raw materials, and the limited certainty of propylene oxide production led to the Japanese region. Insufficient production of propylene oxide.
Japan is an important importer of propylene oxide in China. In 2010, China produced 1.08 million tons of propylene oxide, imported 350,000 tons, and the import dependency reached 24%, of which 28,000 tons were imported from Japan and accounted for 8% of imports. In the past two years, the domestic new capacity of propylene oxide was only 100,000 tons of Shandong Yongda 50,000 tons each in 11 and 12 years; the downstream demand was strong, and the new capacity of polyether polyols reached 660,000 tons in 11 years, making the propylene oxide boom It will continue until 2012. Restricted production in Japan will reduce domestic imports, further aggravate domestic supply tensions, increase the profitability of propylene oxide, and further aggravate cost pressures in the downstream polyether industry. Binhua shares will benefit significantly, and Hongbaoli will face cost pressures.
PX Import Impact Increases Cost Stress of Polyester Industry Chain
Japan has a PX total capacity of about 3.8 million, ranking third in the world. PTA has a capacity of 1.63 million tons, and the Chiba region near the epicenter has a PX capacity of 710,000. Japan is also China's largest importer of PX and the fourth largest importer of PTA, and it is also an important determinant of PX prices in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2010, China's PX production was 5.8 million tons, and imports were 3.53 million tons. The import dependency was as high as 39%, of which 1 million tons were imported from Japan, accounting for 28% of the import volume; PTA production was 13 million tons, and imports were 6.64 million tons, importing The dependency level reached 34%, of which 180,000 tons were imported from Japan, accounting for 3% of the import volume.
Demand for domestic downstream polyester polyester is strong. In the next two years, a large number of new installations will be put into production in China. Among them, China's new polyester production capacity will be 4.7 million tons in the next 11 years, and 2 million tons will be put into production in the first half of the year. In 2011, the domestic PTA's new capacity was 4.05 million tons, of which 600,000 tons was put into operation in the first half of the year and 3.45 million tons was put into production in the second half of the year In the next two years, domestic and overseas PX production capacity will be less. Only domestic Xianglu Petrochemical's 800,000 tons, and Hainan Refining's 600,000 tons production capacity will be put into use. The supply will be tight. Affected imports will further increase the cost pressure on the polyester industry chain, and the pressure on PTA and polyester products will increase.