At the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, coal consumption or over 4 billion tons of main energy status is difficult to change

Under the situation of international climate change and carbon emission reduction pressures, during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s coal industry is facing dual constraints on resources and the environment, and structural adjustments have to be implemented.

The path proposed by the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for the transformation of the coal industry is to “develop safe and efficient coal mines, promote the integration of coal resources and the merger and reorganization of coal mining companies, and develop large-scale coal enterprise groups”.

“The core of the structural adjustment of the coal industry is based on this.” Wang Xianzheng, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, deputy director of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and chairman of the China Coal Industry Association, said that “the increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will make room for coal structural adjustment. In a longer period of time, the proportion of coal consumption will decline and the growth rate will fall, but the total amount will continue to grow. The status of coal's main energy is difficult to change."

In 2010, China’s coal production reached 3.24 billion tons. At the same time, coal consumption continued to grow. Wang Xianzheng predicted that by 2015, the country’s total coal consumption will reach about 4 billion tons.

At the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year” coal consumption or over 4 billion tons of “21st Century”: During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the state encourages the development of clean energy, and the proportion of non-fossil energy is expected to increase by 3.1%. The proportion of coal in the primary energy structure has declined. Has the interests of the coal industry been reduced as a result?

Wang Xianzheng: On the contrary, the proportion of non-fossil energy increased from 8.3% to 11.4%, which is a good thing for the coal industry.

The degree of dependence on primary energy for coal in China exceeds 70%, bringing with it a series of resources and environmental issues. The increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy will free up time and space for structural adjustment of the coal industry.

During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the number of coal mines in the country has been reduced from 24,800 to more than 15,000, and the average single well size has increased from 96,000 to 200,000 tons; the output of large-scale coal bases has reached 2.6 billion tons, accounting for 87% of the country; Enterprises with output exceeding 10 million tons were increased from 30, output of 810 million tons to 45, and output was 1.8 billion tons. This is the result of structural adjustment.

"21st Century": Since 2011, the state will control total energy consumption and implement energy structure adjustments. What is the expected level of domestic coal consumption at the end of the "Twelfth Five-year Plan"?

Wang Xianzheng: Under the condition of a GDP growth rate of 7%, it is expected that by 2015, the country’s total coal consumption will reach about 4 billion tons. If the economic growth exceeds 7%, coal consumption will also increase accordingly. According to recent reports from various localities, the total national energy consumption will exceed the planned 4 billion tons by 2015.

"21st Century": Under high demand, what adjustments will be made to domestic coal production and consumption?

Wang Xianzheng: First, earnestly implement the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for energy development and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for the national coal industry, adhere to the principle of tight coal balance, strengthen the medium and long-term planning and management of the coal industry, and control the total coal production and consumption in the country.

In particular, to strengthen the demand side of coal management, the total coal consumption control into the national functional area planning, according to different regions of the resources and environmental carrying capacity, the existing strength of development and development potential, scientific settings regional coal consumption ceiling.

In the development of coal resources, the concept of “controlling the eastern region, stabilizing the central region, and accelerating the western region” has been adopted to form a resource cascade development and utilization pattern as soon as possible. Guide the local governments and enterprises to establish the concept of scientific coal production capacity, carry out project planning and development on a scale, step-by-step, and planned basis, and prevent large-scale, super-environmental capacity and disorderly development.

The marketization of coal must first address the contradiction between coal and electricity in the “21st Century”: At present, the main market position of coal enterprises is basically established, and the coal order market mechanism with autonomous convergence and negotiated pricing has basically taken shape. However, coal prices in China have not yet been completely marketized, and the “dual-track system” for coal prices still exists. In 2010, the state introduced the interim coal price interventions twice and issued guidance on key coal prices. How to look at the state's macro-control policies on coal prices?

Wang Xianzheng: Due to historical reasons, the "dual-track system" of coal prices still exists, resulting in two or more kinds of prices for the same coal quality coal. Establishing and improving a price formation mechanism that truly reflects the relationship between market supply and demand, the scarcity of resources, and the cost of environmental damage also requires constant efforts.

At present, the difference between the price of key coal contracts and the market electricity coal is increasing. Compared with the annual price of Datong 5,500 kcal annual key orders and the closing price of Qinhuangdao market, the price difference between the two was basically RMB 47/ton in 2006, and the maximum price difference in 2008 was widened to RMB 260/ton, although the price difference in the past two years It has shrunk, but it is still around 147 yuan/ton in 2010.

"21st Century": What are the suggestions for coal market reform?

Wang Xianzheng: Coal and electricity are strategic partnerships. Coal marketization must first address the contradiction between coal and electricity. The state should choose a time and window for price adjustment, adjust the price of electricity, and promote the reform of the power system.

It is recommended that in accordance with the principle of quality and price and homogeneity, the coal price should be gradually merged, the price of key coal and non-principal contracts should be eliminated, and the price of key coal prices in the province should be eliminated. In order to gradually form a market-based coal price system in which the domestic and international markets are linked and the price of the key coal coal contract is unified with the price of the non-key coal coal contract.

"21st Century": At present, the problem of weakened management of the coal industry is prominent. In the new round of government restructuring, some major coal-producing provinces and regions have successively adjusted their coal management responsibilities and divided the original coal industry bureau's industry management functions into multiple departments. Is it necessary to set up a special coal industry management department?

Wang Xianzheng: It is necessary. At present, the coal industry has problems with long management and overlapping duties. Various departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Land and Infrastructure, and safety supervision all manage coal.

It is suggested that the country further rationalize the coal management system and effectively strengthen the management of the coal industry. At the national level, it is necessary to establish an industry management system that is unified, streamlined, and authoritative. It is proposed that the Ministry of Energy be established and the State Administration of Coal Industry be established.

In the reform of local government agencies, it is recommended to set up or restore specialized coal management agencies and allocate special coal management personnel according to different conditions in each coal-producing province, and clarify its commitment to the management of coal industry standards, development plans, scientific and technological progress, and production safety. Functions.