event:
Potash prices continue to rise Since the second half of 2017, potash prices have entered a rising channel. As of May 21, 18, domestic potash - 60% salt lake potash price 2200 yuan, compared with the end of 17 +200 yuan; imported potash -60 % Israel white potassium reported 2190 yuan, compared with +240 yuan at the end of 17; international potash - Vancouver potassium chloride reported 247.5 US dollars, compared with the end of 17 +20 US dollars. Potash prices have experienced a bottom reversal after a long period of downturn.
Briefly commenting on the improvement of supply and demand pattern, the bottom of prices rebounded from the demand side: the downstream demand for potash mainly comes from corn, rice, soybean, wheat and other food crops. With the world population growth and the reduction of cultivated land area, the total output and unit yield of these crops are expected to continue to increase. It is bound to strongly promote the demand for potash.
From the supply side point of view: global potash production capacity is highly concentrated in North America, Russia, Belarus, the above three regions occupy more than 70% of the global total capacity, showing an oligopoly pattern, while the consumption of potash is mainly Brazil, China, Southeast Asia, production sites There is a mismatch between the place and the place of consumption. International oligarchy enjoys market pricing power, and Chinese and Indian potash producers follow international prices for pricing. In recent years, the global potash production capacity has gradually increased, the new capacity has been slowed down and the demand has increased. At the same time, the potassium fertilizer has been added to replenish the inventory cycle, and the global supply has gradually got rid of the overcapacity situation, and the supply side has gradually tightened.
China has proven that potassium resources account for only 2% of the world's total reserves, and the external dependence of potash fertilizer has remained high for a long time. In 2017, China's net import of potassium chloride was 7.29 million tons, the domestic consumption of potassium chloride was 15.5 million tons, and the dependence on foreign countries was 47%. The trend of internationalization of prices was obvious. With the improvement of global potash supply and demand pattern, the price of potassium chloride re-entered. Ascending channel.
The price of oil has risen sharply, further boosting the price of potash. In the long run, the price of crude oil and the price of potash have a strong positive correlation, mainly for the following reasons:
1) The price of crude oil rose, the price of crude oil substitutes such as fuel ethanol and biodiesel rose, which pushed up the price of agricultural products, which in turn led to an increase in the price of potash.
2) Fuel and energy costs account for 23% of total potash production costs. The rise in crude oil prices directly pushes potash prices from the cost side.
3) The rise in crude oil prices will boost the shipping costs and increase the cost of transportation of potash.
Potash price changes slightly lag behind changes in crude oil prices. Under the background of rising crude oil prices, potash fertilizers have strong price increases.
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