Analysis of economic operation of machine tool industry in 2008

Year 2008. The two serious natural disasters in China and the global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis have had a major impact on China's economic development. GDP grew by 9%, down from 4.1 percentage points in the previous year. In 2008, China's machine tool industry's production, sales and profits continued its growth momentum for eight years and continued to maintain its growth momentum. However, both domestic sales and exports showed a situation of rising first and then decreasing. In the first half of the year, they basically maintained steady growth, and the growth rate slowed down significantly in the second half of the year. The decline in the fourth quarter was particularly noticeable. Throughout the year, the import of metal processing machine tools was 7.59 billion US dollars; the export was 2.11 billion US dollars; the consumption was 19.44 billion US dollars, and the domestic market share continued to increase, reaching 61.0%. For the seventh consecutive year, China has become the world's largest consumer of machine tools, the largest importer and the third largest producer; the export of machine tools has reached a new level, ranking two in the world rankings ahead of 2007, ranking sixth.
I. The growth rate of production and sales slowed down significantly in the second half of the year, but maintained steady growth throughout the year. In the first half of 2008, China's machine tool industry continued to maintain a relatively fast growth trend, laying a foundation for stable growth throughout the year. The growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year, especially at the end of the year, when the single-month increase was single digit. The monthly output of gold cutting machine tools has been continuously negatively growing since July, and the annual product sales rate is lower than last year's level. It can be seen that the impact of the financial crisis on China's machine tool industry is becoming more and more obvious.
According to the data of machine tool industry released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2008, 4,832 enterprises completed a total industrial output value of 347.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, an increase of 8 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; the sales value of machine tool industry products was 334.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year. The growth rate was 26.0%, which was 10.2 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.
The annual data shows that the industry still has rapid growth, but it is worth noting that both the monthly data of the whole industry and the survey of some key enterprises by our association show that the speed of the financial crisis has affected our industry. The faster and the deeper the level. The industry's total industrial output in the first quarter increased by 36.6% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter has been greatly reduced. In December, the total industrial output value was 32.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 7.9%; the completed sales value was 30.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 2.3%. The gold cutting machine tool industry completed industrial output value of 8.66 billion yuan in December, down 13.7% year-on-year; completed sales value of 7.76 billion yuan, down 23.8% year-on-year. According to a survey conducted by our association on nearly 200 key enterprises, the total industrial output value of more than 40% of enterprises completed in 2008 is lower than the previous year.
The monthly industrial output value of the machine tool industry and the monthly gross industrial output value of the metal cutting machine industry are shown in the following two tables. In 2008, the sales rate of industrial products in the machine tool industry was 96.4%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. In addition to the sales of casting machinery and woodworking machinery in the two small industries increased by 1.1 and 0.1 percentage points, the other five small industries, including: gold cutting machine tools, forming machine tools, machine tool accessories, measuring tools, abrasive tools and other metal processing The sales rate of machinery showed a downward trend. Among them, the sales rate of products in the small industry of Jinqie machine tools decreased by 2.6 percentage points. Many companies report that the lack of follow-up orders is the biggest problem they face.
According to the survey of key association enterprises by the association, due to the sluggish domestic and international market, the inventory of enterprises this year is 30% higher than the normal year, an increase of 18.7% over the same period of last year. As the company began to cut production or even suspend production in the second half of the year to ease inventory pressure, inventory levels are decreasing month by month.
Second, changes in market structure and scale, promote product structure adjustment and optimization In early 2008, the state implemented a tight monetary policy, the machine tool market structure has changed, the general machine tool product market has shrunk, but relying on the support of national key projects The medium and high-end machine tool market is still hot. As the impact of the global financial crisis on China's economy continued to expand in the next few months, most of the products were affected, and both domestic and international markets fell sharply. In response to this market change, our industry enterprises adjusted production in a timely manner, increased the production ratio of medium and high-end and special machine tools, and gradually optimized the product structure.
According to the data in 2008, the growth rate of China's machine tool output has declined rapidly, while the sales value has continued to grow. The numerical control rate of machine unit price and output value has been continuously improved. The total output of metal cutting machine tools in China is 617,000 units, including 122,000 CNC machine tools. The output is reduced compared with last year, down 2.4% and 3.3% year-on-year; the total output of forming machine tools is 145,000 units, down 9.8% year-on-year. The sales value of products in the gold cutting and forming machine industry increased by 14.0% and 25.2% respectively. According to the survey of key contact enterprises, the numerical control rate of output value of gold cutting machine tools and forming machine tools in 2008 was 48.6% and 49.4%, respectively, which increased by 3.7 and 4.1 percentage points.
It should be noted that the structural contradiction of my industry has not been completely solved, and the numerical control rate of output value has yet to be improved. The proportion of medium and high-end CNC machine tools in CNC machine tools is still relatively low, and it can meet electric energy, railway locomotives, aerospace, and automobiles. There is still much work to be done in the industrialization of high-speed, precision, multi-axis linkage, large-scale machine tools, and high-reliability and stability machine tools in manufacturing and other industries. Therefore, structural adjustment and product upgrades will become the main tasks of my industry enterprises for a long time.
Third, the global market is sluggish, and the growth rate of exports has fallen sharply. In 2008, the import and export of machine tools in China showed a situation of increasing first and then decreasing. In the third and fourth quarters, both import and export growth rates declined.
Export: In 2008, China's machine tool exports reached 7.13 billion US dollars, an increase of 37.1%. The main products that drive China's rapid export growth are abrasives, cutting tools and machine tool parts. The total exports of these three types of products are 3.36 billion US dollars, accounting for 47.2% of the total exports of machine tools, and the export growth rate reaches 54.0%. Metal processing machines accounted for 29.5% of the total, and the export growth contribution rate was only 23.6%.
Affected by the global economic recession and the appreciation of the renminbi against various currencies, the export of metalworking machine tools declined for the fourth consecutive month from August, and only slightly increased in December. The export of metal processing machine tools for the year was 2.11 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.6% year-on-year, an increase of 11.7 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. It is worth noting that the monthly export of metalworking machine tools in the first 10 months (except February) has steadily maintained a double-digit high-speed growth. In November, the year-on-year growth rate suddenly dropped to 0, and in December it was only 3.5%. increase. The decline in the export of metal cutting machine tools was the main factor in the slowdown in the growth rate of metal processing machine tools. In November and December, the monthly export value of gold cutting machine tools increased negatively for two consecutive months. Obviously, the impact of the financial crisis on China's machine tool exports has been highlighted at the end of the year. The appreciation of the renminbi has also had a major adverse impact on the price competitiveness of products in the export market. Export enterprises will face a more severe situation in 2009.
The structure of export products of metal processing machine tools in China is further optimized, the proportion of CNC machine tools is gradually increasing, and the proportion of low-value machine tools is gradually decreasing. In 2008, CNC machine tools accounted for 37.7% of metal cutting machine tool exports, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. Low-value products such as bench drills, sawing machines, grinders and polishing machines exported 350 million US dollars, accounting for 24.2% of Jinqie machine tool exports, down 8.8 percentage points year-on-year.
Imports: In 2008, the total import value of machine tools reached US$12.29 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped 1.3 percentage points from the previous year. Metal processing machine tools accounted for more than 60% of the total imports of machine tools, reaching 7.59 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.3%. The top three products in the import category were machining centers, grinding machines and special processing machines, which were 20.9, 9.9 and 740 million respectively, up 20%, 7.4% and -0.9%.
At present, the state has increased the export tax rebate rate for some products in order to encourage exports, which will play a positive role in the export of enterprises in our industry. In the current foreign trade environment, the impact of the financial crisis is becoming more and more serious, and trade frictions and disputes will inevitably increase. Many countries and regions will restrict foreign trade enterprises through various barriers or trade principles in order to protect their own and local enterprises. Therefore, companies should continue to focus on improving the added value of products and optimizing product structure. At the same time, we must seize the opportunity to continue to explore emerging markets, thus ensuring the steady growth of machine tool exports.
Fourth, the profit growth rate declined. The business operation difficulties depended on the high growth in the first half of the year. From January to November, the machine tool industry achieved a total profit of 17.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the growth rate was 35 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. In 2008, the year-on-year growth rate of industry profits showed a rapid decline. The profit in January-February increased by 73.7% year-on-year; in March-May, it increased by 40.0%; in June-August, it increased by 22.1%, and the profit in September-November turned negative, which was - 4.3%. From an industry perspective, the profit of the two small industries of gold cutting and forming machine tools increased by only 6.0% and 9.4% year-on-year, and fell to 1 digit for the first time; only the profit of foundry and abrasives was higher than the industry level. From the perspective of the nature of the enterprise, the total profit of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreign-controlled enterprises showed a negative growth year-on-year, -17.3% and -7.3% respectively.
According to a survey of nearly 200 key contact companies, most companies are still making profits, and nearly 17% of them have different degrees of losses. The total profit for the year was basically the same as last year, but the profit in the month of December decreased by 54.8%.
V. High-speed growth investment should support product structure adjustment In recent years, investment in machine tool industry has continued to grow rapidly, and this inertia continues. In 2008, our industry has completed fixed assets investment of 79.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%; new fixed assets of 43.86 billion yuan, an increase of 61.7%, much higher than the national average. At present, my industry enterprises should pay attention to the investment direction, not only to prevent low-level redundant construction, but also to prevent repeated investment in hot products. In response to the financial crisis, the Chinese government has implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy. Our industry must use effective investment to develop its own superior products; identify market positioning, develop and expand its operational strength; Funds and energy are used to gradually narrow the gap with imported products. We must work hard on individualized products, high-end products, quality and service, so that enterprises can develop sustainably.

In short, the machine tool industry maintained no growth data in 2008. It is mainly based on the rapid growth in the first half of the year. The growth rate in the second half of the year has gradually slowed down. The decline in the fourth quarter has intensified, especially in exports. In the last two months, almost It is zero growth, and the rapid changes in the situation are worrying. Both domestic and foreign markets were affected by the financial crisis. The shortage of new orders, the decline in sales rate, and the increase in inventories, followed by the reduction of profits and insufficient liquidity were even more serious at the end of the year.
In 2009, enterprises will face severe challenges. At the same time, the development of our industry will be full of opportunities in the next two years. The country has accelerated the launch of several industry revitalization plans and key projects. Our industry should pay special attention to industrial restructuring structures and industrial revitalization plans for automobiles, ships, steel, etc. These industries will directly or indirectly provide a broad market for the machine tool industry. It is now a good time for companies to conduct in-depth market research, optimize product structure, develop demand products, rectify product quality, and improve corporate management. In addition, electric power and clean energy, transportation, defense and military, aerospace, oil and gas exploration and transportation, engineering machinery, agricultural machinery and other industries import a large number of machine tools every year. Our industry enterprises should go deep into the user's site to understand their manufacturing processes and develop to meet the needs of users. Importing alternative products to gain their own development.

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