Yin Hong: ceramic industry is difficult to return to prosperity in 2009

Some industry friends have told me that you must write one of the “ceramic figures.” One person must not be less. That is Dr. Yin Hong. Indeed, Dr. Hong Yin, currently deputy secretary-general of China Building Sanitary Ceramics Association, deputy secretary-general of Guangdong Ceramics Association, secretary-general of Foshan Ceramic Industry Association and associate professor of South China University of Technology, has a decisive position in the industry for several decades. His soaking has long made him understand the water in this industry. A colleague once said to reporters who had just entered the industry that if you carefully read Dr. Yin's “Porcelain in China”, you will understand the industry.

In view of this, this newspaper sent an invitation to Dr. Yin Hong. Dr. Yin Hong and the newspaper were already old friends. After receiving the invitation, they gladly agreed. In the parlor room of the newspaper, the reporter and Dr. Yin Hong drank tea and chatted as interviews. They listened to the doctor’s opinion from the macro situation of the industry to the ambiguity of the future development of hot products. A new level of understanding.

The ceramic industry is difficult to return to the prosperity of 2009 Reporter: At present, the ceramics industry is in a relatively depressed period. Do you think that after this period, can the ceramic industry once again usher in a boom like the 2008 financial crisis?

Yin Hong: First of all, I want to affirm one point. I think the crisis in 2008 had little impact. It lasted less than half a year. Since 2004, the ceramics industry has maintained double-digit growth in production capacity. In 2009, it was an increase of about 11%, and in 2010 it was an increase of about 18%. As for the current situation, it is not a ceramic winter and its personal definition is not the same. We assume that when it is cold, the biggest factor at present is the suppression of real estate by the country and the market situation has changed. However, the government cut interest rates twice and lowered reserve funds four or five times. Local governments slightly relax restrictions on purchases, but let the property market again. Warmer. Moreover, from the data point of view, the CPI has been low for three consecutive months. The Chinese economy is still developing and the demand is still growing, which makes the Chinese market have a lot of room for development.

However, I think that after this winter, the ceramic industry may not be as prosperous as it was in 2009. I recently wrote an article entitled "It's not necessarily Spring after Winter." It doesn't have to be cold after the winter, but it won't be warm spring. The production capacity in 2009 was 4.27 billion, which was 7.57 billion in 2010 and 8.701 billion in 2011. It is increasing by more than 10% every year. However, it is difficult for the industry's production capacity to return to double-digit growth in the next 3 to 5 years. It will maintain a growth of about 5% or even lower. The industry is currently undergoing a transition from high-speed growth to a smooth transition. This process will be relatively long. The Chinese economy should also grow at a low level, and seeking high levels of growth will be unregulated and uncoordinated.

The ceramic industry is more like the apparel industry. Reporter: Some industry sources say that the future of the ceramics industry will be the same as the appliance industry. How do you think?

Yin Hong: I think that the ceramic industry will not form the oligarch times like the home appliance industry. However, there will still be many big companies that stand out in their own right, like today's Xin Zhong Yuan, Xin Ming Zhu, Hong Yu, Gao Ming Shun Cheng and so on. Many companies in the industry have proposed to be bigger and stronger, and specialize in doing fine work. This is an industry trend. For example, these old tile companies like Xinzhongyuan, Xinmingzhu and Dongpeng are also doing Sanitary Ware. They use Wrigley as a sanitary ware and Huida as a ceramic tile, but there are also portraits like Jane one who focus on glazed polished marble. The situation exists. This is a large-scale and homogeneous industry with sub-divided segments, so much so that it is like the home appliance industry, in fact, it is more like the apparel industry. The apparel industry specializes in sportswear such as Nike, Adidas, and suits such as HugoBoss and Armani. It is both big and small. The household appliance industry is an oligarchic company that only covers the sky. The sales of the United States in 2010 exceeded 100 billion yuan, which is greater than the entire Foshan ceramics industry in 2010. Although I do not think that there will be an oligarchic period in the industry, I agree with mergers and reorganizations. In 2006, we proposed the merger and reorganization of Foshan ceramics, but for various reasons, we failed to implement it.

The dealer model is still the mainstream reporter for the next 10 years: The terminal sales of the architectural ceramics industry is currently coexisting with the distributor system and the branch company system, but the distributor system is still the mainstream of the industry. Dr. Yin do you think the future development is still the case?

Yin Hong: At present, there are three kinds of sales models: dealer model, building materials supermarket, and e-commerce. However, the basic model is the dealer model. This is determined by China’s national conditions and situation. This model will be in the next 10 years. It will continue to be mainstream for even longer. In Europe, America and Australia, most of them are building materials supermarkets. The sales model of domestic companies should be the same. However, due to the great strength of Chinese dealers, building supermarkets and e-commerce are more difficult to develop because it cannot Protecting the interests of distributors conflicts with the interests of distributors. In China, there are home improvement and tooling channels for sales channels. In this tooling, more people rely on contacts and relations to conduct public relations. Therefore, I think that the distributor system will still exist in mainstream form for a decade or more because it is still impossible to break China. This habit of society.

The wear-resistance is the problem that determines the future trend of microcrystalline stone. Reporter: Today, the homogeneity of microcrystalline stone products is serious, and companies need to make a difference when they want to seize opportunities in the microcrystalline field. What are the differences in the future of microcrystalline products?

Yin Hong: This year and a half years have suddenly caused an upsurge of microcrystalline stone. There are two reasons for this. One is the preference of the Chinese people for style products, and the crystallized crystallites are crystal clear; the other is the involvement of inkjet technology. , The product is rich in decoration. But at the same time, because inkjet products also make products homogenized and homogenized, on the one hand, it makes the product rich in style, such as wood grain and stone grain, but it also leads to the products are relatively close. I think that if microcrystalline stones are to be differentiated, one is the change of the frit itself, such as multicolored, pattern, etc.; one is the use of inkjet to produce effects such as grain, wood grain, oil painting; and finally it is to solve it. The degree of wear-resistance, now the wear resistance of microcrystalline stone is not high, which is also a difficult problem constraining the future development of microcrystalline stone.

Reporter: As a new type of product, microcrystalline stone has a higher price than ordinary ceramic tile. However, with the further development of microcrystalline stone, I wonder if its future price trend will happen.

Yin Hong: The price of microcrystalline stone will slowly come down in the future. Microlite began to appear ten years ago and it began to fight for intellectual property rights in 2006. The total capacity did not exceed six lines during this period, but now it has exceeded 100 lines. With the increase of competition, the price war will follow. The cost of many companies now exceeds 100 blocks per square meter. In fact, the development trajectory of each product is the same. When it first came out, the profit was very high. Everyone began to flock to do it. After that, there was a surplus of production capacity. Therefore, it was only possible to fight a price war. A price war was a dozen and the price was bound to come down. Ultimately consumers benefit. For example, smart phones, iphone, Samsung are doing, Nokia's Win7 is also out, if you have been let Apple control 60% to 70% of the market share, consumers certainly can not afford.

The inkjet printing boom will continue for 3 to 5 years. Reporter: Inkjet printing, combined with the popular products on the market, will be dominated by crystals and crystallized stone. Do you predict how long this boom will last?

Yin Hong: I think this boom will last a long time. Among them, I think there are three reasons. The first is that on the surface, the cost of ink-jet printing can be compared with that of a rubber roller. The price may be slightly higher than that, but the management cost is much simpler, such as the monitoring of production and production. Personnel in various operating procedures can be reduced by half. Second, it has promoted the technological advancement of the industry and has brought the technology gap of various companies closer. I once held this point of view. Because of the emergence of ink-jet printing, many companies have quickly narrowed the technological gap between them and stood on the same starting line. This is because everyone's technical equipment level has followed. Take the optical fiber application to make an analogy. When the United Kingdom began laying fiber, the old circuit could not be wasted, so it could only be covered slowly. The circuit from Guangzhou to Beijing in China was not sound enough, so he could put all the fiber on it at once. This made China stand on the same starting line with the United States and the United Kingdom in the use of fiber. Thirdly, the nozzle diameter is getting bigger and bigger, the ink fineness requirements are getting looser and looser. In the future, ink jet printing may even be achieved with glaze and anion function printing. Then the original color glaze equipment can be discarded and only one is required. Inkjet machine can be. So I think this upsurge will continue for at least 3 to 5 years, continuing to reach 30% to 40% of our industry's inkjet share.

Reporter: Is there a bottleneck or a problem that will cause the inkjet boom to come down?

Yin Hong: I think the only factor that may cause the drop in inkjet boom is the cost of inkjet, but we have not yet faced this situation because the real cost of inkjet printing has not yet come out. The last time I met the head of a European company, they were from Kera. Jet jet printers bought its machines in the early stages, but it was useless because it was too small to produce 3,000 square meters a day, so he came to China to find large-capacity jets. Ink flower machine. Also, the current lifespan of the sprinkler is not really counted, and it is generally said that two or three years. Today, 800-millimeter brick flower machines use hundreds of sprinklers, assuming that one sprinkler is 30,000, and 100 sprinklers are 3 million. Moreover, the production of nozzles is basically monopolized, and only a few countries are producing. Another point is that digital product replacement is fast, such as the 2.0 to 3.0 for the confidential, but also spent a very high price for the new machine, if you change one year, many companies can not afford it. In addition to the replacement of the inkjet printers, the nozzles will also be replaced with newer ones. Now the aperture of the nozzles is getting bigger and bigger. Like the latest installation of the company's Sell nozzle, its aperture is more than twice the original size.

Reporter: Dr. Do you think inkjet printers can completely replace the rubber roller in the future?

Yin Hong: Inkjet cannot be monopolized by the industry like Window. At most, some developed countries can replace 30% to 40%. Because of the large quantity of rubber rollers and their own characteristics, in addition to the advances in inkjet technology and the development of rubber roller technology, Hongyu and Jianyi, the well-known companies in the industry, are still mainly based on rubber roller printing. .