Shanghai Aluminum Completes Delivery

Outside the plate trend: overnight aluminum oscillations finishing, the end fell 0.8% to 2108 US dollars, up from the day's low of 2088 US dollars rose 0.96%. Today, the Asian city of London aluminum in the weak near 2100 US dollars to finish, nearly a week in the high alumina oscillation into operation, the long and short sides of the oscillation waiting for long-term direction.

In terms of spot, Shanghai Metalnet's aluminum spot price is 15030-15070 yuan/ton, which is flat compared to the 17th, and the aluminum premium is 125-liter premium of 85 yuan/ton. According to reports by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals, in the East China market, due to the increase in shipments by the holding traders, the monthly turnover of the month to the 1301 contract was stagnating at the premium of 100 yuan/ton, and the willingness of the downstream receiving goods was stable, and the low-cost goods were abundant. However, due to the limited aluminum inventory in Guangdong, the holding traders still hold firm at 15170-15180 yuan/ton, and the downstream companies have a weaker bearish sentiment. The weakening of buying interest in the two cities caused the overall market condition to shrink.

Inside the plate trend: Shanghai aluminum 1303 contract opened flat today to 15405, the day fell steadily from highs, late fell 0.68% to an intraday low of 15,300 yuan. In addition, today's Shanghai Aluminum Index positions decreased by 13420 to 168444, and volume increased by 9710 to 30018. Shanghai Aluminum’s holdings have not continued to increase, suggesting that the enthusiasm for capital participation is still not high, which is not conducive to the strengthening of aluminum prices.

Analysis of market factors: The news of the short-term U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations is good or bad, but overall, as the deadline approaches, the market is still very worried that this factor makes the base metals represented by copper fall into a high level and oscillate. In addition, the bad performance of the New York Fed manufacturing index yesterday caused uncertainties in the US economic recovery. Watching the US NAHB house price index for the evening in the evening is expected to be more. In terms of aluminum price estimation, Barclays Capital still recommends that next year it is appropriate to cast aluminum prices on rallies, as the overcapacity is still very serious, and its 2013 average price of aluminum is expected to remain at US$1988.

Quotes: Today's Shanghai aluminum 1303 contract tumbled to 15300 yuan, Shanghai aluminum positions failed to continue, aluminum prices are still difficult to attract funds to continue to hold, because Shanghai Aluminum has completed the delivery, began to make the callback trend of the two-day aluminum reflect. In the short term, in the absence of any bullish rebound, the aluminum price is expected to continue its weak pattern. In operation, Shanghai Aluminum is advised to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. The 1,303 contract backed by 15,500 yuan was mainly bearish, and the support moved down to 15,250 yuan.