Abstract Although the entire PV industry value chain lacks liquid capital expenditures, market research firm NPDsolarbuzz expects that a major shift to more efficient batteries and components by the end of 2018 will ultimately dominate the industry. In an in-depth analysis of new PV technology trends...
Although the entire PV industry value chain lacks liquid capital spending, market research firm NPD Solarbuzz expects that a major shift to more efficient batteries and components by the end of 2018 will ultimately dominate the industry. In an in-depth analysis of new PV technology trends, NPD Solarbuzz highlighted in its latest "Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap" report that conventional mainstream polysilicon p-type technology with solar-grade silicon is expected to decline to its market share by the end of 2017. The point where the foundation does not exist.
Finlay Colville, vice president of NPD Solarbuzz, said: "The solar photovoltaic industry will continue to provide strong growth potential for a wide range of photovoltaic manufacturing technologies. If the efficiency is given full priority, the rated power of the panels will continue to be expected. Achieve record performance levels."
A major shift that is accelerating the pace will see the mainstream industry shift to products based on high-efficiency polysilicon p-type technology, enabling different PERC cell processes on semiconductor-grade silicon.
According to NPD Solarbuzz, high-efficiency polysilicon p-type products will account for more than 50% of the market in 2018.
However, it is also expected that conventional monocrystalline silicon p-type batteries or components will gradually decline until 2018, eventually becoming a niche market with a market share of approximately 15% in 2014.
According to NPD Solarbuzz's “Accelerated Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap†scenario, the target market for high quality crystalline silicon component suppliers is expected to grow by 200% after 2015 and reach 7.6 GW in 2018.
Developing monocrystalline silicon
Other major trends in high-efficiency single crystal silicon p-type cells or modules that enable PERC technology to increase efficiency are expected. NPD Solarbuzz's report predicts that high-efficiency p-type monocrystalline silicon is gradually gaining traction and is expected to reach a market share of approximately 20% by 2018.
Since the market research company project will increase market share until 2018, the challenge will seem to be traction on n-type single crystal silicon. It is expected that in 2018, the market share of only n-type single crystal "standard" and "advanced" will reach 10-12%, compared with about 3-4% in 2014.
Despite this, it recognizes the acquisition and expansion of Silevo's technology by companies such as SolarCity, and First Solar's plan to bring TetraSun's photovoltaic technology into mass production.
The NPD Solarbuzz report points out that the crystalline silicon technology based on high-efficiency Czochralski (CZ) development technology and the crystalline silicon technology produced by custom-made directional solidification (DSS) furnaces for solar photovoltaics will ultimately determine which one to decide. Technology will prevail in the industry over the next five years.
Film Transfer According to NPD Solarbuzz's “Most Probable Photovoltaic Technology Roadmapâ€, the supply of thin film and high quality crystalline silicon components is expected to increase from 5.3 GW in 2014 to 14.5 GW by 2018.
However, it is expected that the role of amorphous silicon thin film technology will not rebound in the short term. Inevitably, CIGS thin film technology is expected to gain market share over the leading CdTe technology, both of which have an equal share in 2018.
So although the number of participants and the expansion of the Hanergy program are considered impossible, there is an overall shift to CIGS technology.
Colville said: "Although cost reduction is the main focus of the photovoltaic manufacturing sector in the past two years, the industry's current ideal position is to eventually adopt a common technology roadmap. As leading PV manufacturers review the installed capacity from 2015 onwards Capacity, the technology proposed as a baseline will be a key part of the plant equipment design and target customer base."
NPD Solarbuzz is still focusing on the top 20 suppliers of industry technology trends, pointing out that of the top 20 PV module suppliers, 16 are expected to account for 89% of the installed PV capacity this year.
Since the market research company project will increase market share until 2018, the challenge will seem to be traction on n-type single crystal silicon. It is expected that in 2018, the market share of only n-type single crystal "standard" and "advanced" will reach 10-12%, compared with about 3-4% in 2014.
Despite this, it recognizes the acquisition and expansion of Silevo's technology by companies such as SolarCity, and First Solar's plan to bring TetraSun's photovoltaic technology into mass production.
The NPD Solarbuzz report points out that the crystalline silicon technology based on high-efficiency Czochralski (CZ) development technology and the crystalline silicon technology produced by custom-made directional solidification (DSS) furnaces for solar photovoltaics will ultimately determine which one to decide. Technology will prevail in the industry over the next five years.
Film Transfer According to NPD Solarbuzz's “Most Probable Photovoltaic Technology Roadmapâ€, the supply of thin film and high quality crystalline silicon components is expected to increase from 5.3 GW in 2014 to 14.5 GW by 2018.
However, it is expected that the role of amorphous silicon thin film technology will not rebound in the short term. Inevitably, CIGS thin film technology is expected to gain market share over the leading CdTe technology, both of which have an equal share in 2018.
So although the number of participants and the expansion of the Hanergy program are considered impossible, there is an overall shift to CIGS technology.
Colville said: "Although cost reduction is the main focus of the photovoltaic manufacturing sector in the past two years, the industry's current ideal position is to eventually adopt a common technology roadmap. As leading PV manufacturers review the installed capacity from 2015 onwards Capacity, the technology proposed as a baseline will be a key part of the plant equipment design and target customer base."
NPD Solarbuzz is still focusing on the top 20 suppliers of industry technology trends, pointing out that of the top 20 PV module suppliers, 16 are expected to account for 89% of the installed PV capacity this year.
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