In 2010, the renminbi ended with an uptrend. On December 31, 2010, the median price of the exchange rate of the US dollar and other trading currencies against the renminbi in the interbank foreign exchange market was: 1 US dollar against 6.6227 yuan, which has appreciated for 9 consecutive days and has hit A new high, with a cumulative appreciation of 3.01% throughout the year.
The comprehensive appreciation of the renminbi in the future will have a fundamental impact on China's household manufacturing industry. The profit margin of traditional Chinese labor-intensive export companies is about 3% -5%. According to the stress test on the home furnishing manufacturing industry in the coastal area in the first half of 2010, if the RMB appreciates by 3%, the home furnishing manufacturing enterprises in the coastal area will face unprecedented difficulties.
At present, RMB appreciation has entered a strategic channel of appreciation. The global pattern of "rising east, falling west, hot north and cold north" is destined for China to face the risk of asset inflation and excessive appreciation of the renminbi for a long period of time. It can be said that the appreciation of the renminbi forces China's household manufacturing industry to accelerate its transformation.
During the 30 years of reform and opening up, China's household manufacturing industry has achieved rapid development. From 1978 to 2006, the added value of China's above-scale household manufacturing industry, calculated by comparable caliber, increased by an average of about 15% per year, higher than all industrial and GDP years. Increase. The huge production capacity of "China Household Manufacturing" makes it possible for every 10% increase in growth to boost the global economic growth by one percentage point. For more than 20 years, the growth rate of China's household manufacturing industry ranks first in the world, and the proportion of household manufacturing industry growth has far exceeded that of the United States.
In addition, the labor productivity and value-added rate of China's household manufacturing industry are relatively low, approximately 4.38% in the United States, 4.37% in Japan, and 5.56% in Germany. The quality of China's household manufacturing industry still lags behind that of developed countries.
From the perspective of the intermediate input contribution coefficient, one unit value of intermediate input in developed countries can roughly get 1 unit or more of new value creation, while China can only get 0.56 unit of new value creation. The value-added rate is another comprehensive indicator to measure the input-output efficiency of an economy. At present, the value-added rate of China's home manufacturing industry is only 26.23%, which is 22.99, 22.12, and 11.69 percentage points lower than that of the United States, Japan, and Germany, respectively.
At present, China's household manufacturing industry is still in the middle and lower reaches of the world's household manufacturing industry chain. Most of the products exported by China are "three low" products with low technological content, low unit price and low added value, but they import a large amount of high-tech content and high additional value. Value and high price "three high" products. The price trade terms of China's household manufacturing sector's trade with the United States show a clear deterioration trend, reflecting the weakening of China's unit export commodity exchange capacity.
The development of China's home manufacturing industry is suffering from unprecedented major challenges. It is increasingly difficult to continue with low wage compensation, high energy consumption and high export tax rebates, coupled with the rise in raw materials across the board and the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. , China's household manufacturing industry has been struggling. In exchange rate disputes and trade siege, the international external environment facing China will also undergo profound changes in the future.
China's household manufacturing transformation must focus on solving three major issues:
One of the problems is to change the excessive dependence of China's economic development on the export market and tap the potential of the domestic market; the second problem is to shift the focus to promoting the upgrading of home manufacturing and technology, to avoid China's economy being locked in low added value, In the development of labor-intensive industries with simple technology; the third problem is that, with regard to China ’s foreign direct investment, in addition to the enterprise ’s choice of maximizing profits, it offsets the balance of payments effect of foreign direct investment in China through foreign direct investment. The appreciation of the renminbi just provides an opportunity to solve the above three problems.
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