Strong rubber prices are hard to change

After the National Day, the Hujiao Market changed its pre-holiday cautious mood, and the main contract rapidly increased. It was a strong daily limit yesterday and went straight to the 33,000-yuan integer mark. For more than 30,000 yuan Jiaojia go from here? The author believes that 33,000 yuan is only a stage high, follow-up crude oil, the Fed's stimulus to the economy will promote the price of rubber to higher.

On the global supply side, the Rubber Producing Countries Association believes that the pre-production increase in the main producing countries in 2010 is between 5.2% and 6.9%. Due to climatic reasons and some hypothetical assumptions, the output growth rate has recently been reduced from 6.9% to 6.3%. In 2010, the global natural rubber demand is expected to increase by 9.4%. The global supply pattern is tight. In terms of domestic consumption, from January to September 2010, the total output of tires was 583 million, an increase of 24% year-on-year. In terms of domestic supply, the April drought in Yunnan and the torrential rain in October in Hainan will reduce the supply of natural rubber in China. The Association of Producer Countries has reduced China's production from 680,000 tons to 660,000 tons. In terms of imports, domestic total imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber from January to September were 1.34 million tons and 1.185 million tons, respectively, a year-on-year increase of only 3.08% and 6.36% respectively. The growth of downstream consumption was significantly higher than the increase in supply, which intensified the contradiction in domestic supply.

The price-to-price relationship between plastics shows that there is still room for growth in rubber prices. The comparison between latex and latex concentrate shows that the reasonable price of all latex stock is between RMB 30825-31300, while the average price of the entire farm meal is maintained at around RMB 30,600; the price of smoke between Hong Kong and Singapore is similar to that of No. 20 rubber in Singapore. The relationship shows that the reasonable price of cigarette smoke is between 406-426 US dollars, while the Singapore spot price is around 400 US dollars, all latex and smoke tablets have some room for growth. From the historical price rule of Hujiao alone, 33,370 yuan is a crazy price, but the excess liquidity of the market may push up this crazy price. Both domestic and foreign stocks, Hujiao has a new high can look forward to.

According to the price comparison relationship with crude oil since the listing of Hujiao, the reasonable rubber price for the 85 US dollars crude oil is 26,100 yuan. On the eve of National Day, the market still maintains such a reasonable price relationship. After the National Day, due to Thailand's implementation of new export tariffs, according to the rules of export duties, the export of tobacco tablets is now levied at 5 Baht/kg, which was previously levied at 1.4 Baht/kg per kilogram, which may increase domestic import costs by 1,000 yuan/ton; It is normal for the price of glue in the short term to deviate from the reasonable price of crude oil for the impact of heavy rain on production.

The tight global supply pattern in 2010 will also continue. China's production and import growth will be slower than the increase in consumption of the entire rubber product industry will intensify supply. The benign management of the entire rubber-bonded company and the slight increase in tire profit have become difficulties in control. The price-related relationship still supports the further rise in rubber prices. As the bullish market bullish interest rate is high, there will be consolidation or correction after the rubber price rises rapidly. It is recommended to buy at the support level. With the increase of crude oil and the strengthening of the Fed's policy, Hujiao's 1103 and 1105 contract prices are expected to reach 36,170 yuan and 37,880 yuan.